My Predictions for 2006

[Carol]

I have moved this post from msn to here regarding my predictions for 2006. If anyone has any comments regarding what I have stated here, please feel free to post. Also, if you have any predictions of your own, please post them on this board.

Angel



My Predictions For 2006

I believe that there will be more natural disasters this year, continuing from last year. However I feel that there will be more disasters in the form of earthquakes this year, with thousands of lives lost. The places that I feel will be hard hit will include Russia, North Korea, China and California. Also on this list of disaster are Vancouver and Alaska (polar shift related) being among those affected by earthquakes this year. We will see a large increase in earthquakes from countries that haven't been affected by them in many years. I also feel that there will be an unexpected twist in regards to the volcano located at Yellowstone. I think that the small eruptions that have been occurring on a regular basis will soon turn more deadly.

This will also be a year filled with conflict from around the world. This time the conflict will involve Russia selling weapons to the middle east (Iran) and Iran in turn using the weapons to fight Israel, creating much havoc. More conflict headed our way from North Korea and nuclear arms. I think that there will be a double cross of sorts and they will not hold out on any agreements or contraints.

In regards to weather I feel that there will be an increase in fires in central U.S. due to lack of rain. Texas and Oklahoma, Louisiana in particular will see an unusual increase in fires this spring/summer. California will be affected by this as well. Many countries including Canada will be experiencing drought. Many crops will be lost, causing food and other products to rise in price.

Also on the list for this years misfortunes will be the ever increasing dangers due to viruses. At the top of the list is the Avian bird flu which will leave it?s mark in Europe. I also believe there will be the closing of borders in the countries that are affected. On this list of viruses I am including mad cow disease. I keep feeling that this will be on the rise, with countries closing borders to beef sales.

More mutated animals will be found as last year, again in the form of fish, and frogs due to the changes in our environment. Also many new discoveries of animals will be found this year that were not known to have existed.

[Carol]

Alabama cow tests positive for mad cow disease
Third U.S. case caught before it entered the food supply

MSNBC staff and news service reports
Updated: 5:03 p.m. ET March 13, 2006
WASHINGTON - A cow in Alabama has tested positive for mad cow disease, the Agriculture Department said Monday, confirming the third U.S. case of the brain-wasting ailment.

The animal was a beef cow but hadn?t entered the food supply for people or animals, said the department?s chief veterinarian, John Clifford.

"Which means the citizens of Alabama ? and the nation ? have no reason to believe their food supply from cattle is unsafe. It?s just as safe as it was yesterday," Alabama Health Officer Dr. Donald Williamson told a news conference on Monday.

The cow had grown sick and couldn't rise ? known as a "downer" cow ? when a routine test last week had indicated the presence of the disease. Results were confirmed by more detailed testing at a government laboratory in Ames, Iowa, Clifford said.

U.S. investigators have found two previous cases of mad cow disease. The first was in December 2003 in a Canadian-born cow in Washington state. The second was last June in a cow that was born and raised in Texas.

The cow spent the past year at an Alabama farm, Clifford said. The department is investigating where the animal was born and raised.

"We have investigators on the farm. There will not be anything coming to or leaving from that farm at this particular point in time," Alabama's Agriculture and Industries Commissioner Ron Sparks said Monday. But, he said, other healthy-appearing cattle would not be tested for the disease because the disease cannot be transmitted between cows.

Investigators are working to pinpoint the cow?s age, but the infected animal appears to have been more than 10 years old, according to a local veterinarian's assessment.

The age of the cow is important because the United States put safeguards in place nine years ago to prevent the disease from spreading. The United States banned ground-up cattle remains from being added to cattle feed in 1997. Eating contaminated feed is the only way cattle are known to contract the disease.

Older animals are more likely to have been exposed to contaminated feed circulating before the 1997 feed ban.

In the two previous U.S. mad cow cases, the infected animals were born before 1997.

?If it was born after the feed ban in the United States, it is a bigger problem, because it would be harder to say our system is working well,? Jim Robb, a Livestock Meat Information Center economist, said Saturday after the preliminary results were announced.

The news came as the Bush administration worked to reassure Japan and other foreign customers about American beef. Japan halted U.S. beef shipments in January after finding veal cuts with backbone ? cuts that are eaten in the United States but not in Asia.

Japan was the top customer of American beef until the first U.S. case of mad cow disease prompted a ban it had only recently lifted.

?We would not anticipate that this would impact our ongoing negotiations,? Clifford said. ?Our product is safe. We?ve got a number of interlocking safeguards. And Japan themselves have had 20-plus cases of BSE.?

Mad cow disease is the common name for bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or BSE. First discovered in Great Britain in 1986, the disease destroys the brain in cattle.

A similar, fatal disease can affect people who eat meat from infected cattle. More than 140 people, mainly in Britain and Europe, have died from the disease.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11809760/

[Carol]

Iran resumes research into nuclear fuel
International community blasts Tehran; U.S. says it's a ?serious escalation?
MSNBC News Services
Updated: 10:54 a.m. ET Jan. 10, 2006

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran removed seals on its nuclear facilities Tuesday, allowing work to resume despite warnings from countries concerned about its nuclear ambitions.

The United States rebuked Iran for the move, calling it a "serious escalation" toward creating the material for nuclear bombs, while Prime Minister Tony Blair's official spokesman said the international community was "running out of patience" with Tehran.

The United States and Britain are among nations that have called on Tehran to cease nuclear activities until an agreement has been reached on the scope of its nuclear program.

Iran announced plans last week to resume research on the production of nuclear fuel, heightening concerns that Tehran was moving toward building atomic weapons. Iran says the research is aimed at generating electricity.

Mohammad Saeedi, the deputy head of Iran?s Atomic Energy Organization, said Tuesday that Iran was not resuming the production of nuclear fuel, a process that would involve uranium enrichment.

?What we resume is merely in the field of research, not more than that,? he said at a news conference. ?We make a difference between research on nuclear fuel technology and production of nuclear fuel.

?Production of nuclear fuel remains suspended.?

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency affixed the seals more than two years ago after Iran agreed to the measure in an effort to dampen suspicions about its nuclear ambitions.


IAEA inspectors were present Tuesday as Iranian officials began removing the seals, spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said from Vienna, Austria, where the agency is based. She declined to say whether the Iranians planned to start enriching uranium or would be satisfied with testing the equipment used in the process.

In Vienna, the chief U.S. representative to the IAEA, Gregory L. Schulte, said that by cutting the seals, Iran had shown ?its disdain for international concerns and its rejection of international diplomacy.?

?The regime continues to choose confrontation over cooperation, a choice that deepens the isolation of Iran and harms the interests of the Iranian people,? he said.

International threats, warnings
White House spokesman Scott McClellan called the move a "serious escalation by Tehran," and said the international community would have "no other choice but to refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council" if Iran continues on the same course.

Russia, Iran?s ally, also expressed concern about Tehran?s intention to renew uranium enrichment activities and called on Iran to maintain its moratorium on enrichment pending negotiations, Russian news agencies reported.

Earlier Tuesday, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak said that a Russian delegation had confirmed to Iranian officials that Moscow?s offer to jointly enrich Iranian uranium on Russian territory still stands, the Interfax news agency reported.

The proposal, backed by the European Union and the United States, was designed to ease concerns that Iran would use the fuel to build a bomb. Lavrov said Moscow was coordinating its actions with Germany, Britain and France, Interfax reported.

Iran has insisted it would not agree to moving enrichment abroad.

In a foreign policy address Tuesday, French President Jacques Chirac told Iran it would be committing a ?grave error? if it ignored the international community?s repeated warnings and pressed ahead with its nuclear program.
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Tuesday said the Iranian government "crossed a line, which the Iranians knew could not remain without consequences," and said his government will work with British and French officials this week to determine their position on the matter.
China said it hoped the dispute could still be solved within the IAEA. Foreign ministry spokesman Kong Quan said Beijing backed a renewal of the moribund talks between Iran and the EU.
European diplomats have said they would seek an emergency meeting of the IAEA to consider referring Tehran to the Security Council for failing to allay fears it is seeking an atom bomb.
Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10784050

[Carol]

From B.C. to Mars




LEFT: Microbialites, coral-like growths found in Pavilion Lake near Cache Creek, are being studied by scientists at both Simon Fraser University and NASA to help them learn about the possibility of life on Mars. BELOW: Sonar is used to map the growths, which formed shortly after glaciers receded from the area. BOTTOM: Engineering scientist John Bird waits while a sonar survey is done of Pavilion Lake.


By MIKELLE SASAKAMOOSE
Staff reporter
Jan 11 2006

On the computer screen is a splotchy black and white 3D sonar image that looks as though it is on its side.
?And that?s where I tell people the spaceship landed,? said John Bird, explaining a dark circle on the unidentifiable image.
Bird, an engineering science professor and head of the underwater research lab at Simon Fraser University (SFU), has found something strange in a local lake.
No, it isn?t Ogopogo ??? but it is equally mysterious.
Pavilion Lake sits in the bottom of Marble Canyon near Cache Creek. It is always eerily calm.
And through its glass-like surface is a completely transparent fluid right down to the suspect bed where coral-like growths have been found that could prove there was once life on Mars.
In 1997, an underwater video filmed in the fresh-water lake by a sport diver was given to the SFU lab. The video featured large fields of the coral-like growths and intrigued Bird ??? not to mention NASA.
NASA is investigating similar areas of interest worldwide. Pavilion Lake was the first of three target lakes, including Lake Alchichica in Mexico and Pyramid Lake in Nevada.
Researchers hope studies of the growths, called microbialites, will shed light on the possibility that life existed at one time in ancient lakes on Mars.
The two groups started field work in the area in 1997 and have since found some of the growths are are as much as 11,000 years old, meaning that they began forming shortly after glaciers receded from the area.
?Apparently fossils of things that are like these were found in old lake beds in the Canadian shield and if [NASA] can show that these things are biogenic, they can say there was life at that time there,? said Bird.
?Now extrapulating that to Mars, if [NASA] can find dry lake beds [on Mars], and they find fossils of these similar things up there, and they?ve shown that they?re biogenic in origin they can say that at least there was life there once.?
Bird could not detail any research findings because of restrictions based on project funding, but did say the SFU team plans to continue a full-scale mapping of the lake bottom to better understand the structures and why they are there.
The SFU research team designs and tests sonar tools that provide 3D underwater images of the lake bottom.
The CBC, Discovery Channel, and Knowledge Network have all filmed documentaries at Pavilion Lake based on previous research and findings and will begin airing them this year.
The Knowledge Network?s documentary will air as part of its The Leading Edge: Innovation in B.C. series starting this month.
Research has been conducted at the lake since 1997 by various groups, and is ongoing.


Source: http://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/portals ... 9935&more=

[Carol]

Hundreds flee as Okla. fires destroy 24 homes

Worst fire 50 percent contained; conditions still ?extremely dangerous?
OKLAHOMA CITY - Grass fires driven by high winds destroyed at least 24 homes and forced hundreds of evacuations in Oklahoma, which remained extremely dry despite snowfall earlier in the week.

The worst fire raged in southern Oklahoma near Ratliff City, where it burned through at least 20 homes overnight, said Michelle Finch, fire information officer for the Oklahoma Forestry Department.

Four air tankers dropped fire retardant on the area until dark Thursday and resumed the effort early Friday. The fire, which was four miles wide, burned 7,000 to 10,000 acres and was about 50 percent contained Friday morning, said Richard Reuse, an information officer for the state?s fire response center.

At least four other homes burned near a high school several miles to the west in Stephens County, Reuse said.

Statewide, 11 fires were reported Thursday and as many as 18,406 acres burned, said Cliff Eppler, an information officer for the state?s fire response center. There were no reports of injuries, officials said.

?It?s a real dangerous situation?
More than 800 homes were evacuated in Tatums, Fox, Clemscott and Graham, about an hour?s drive south of Oklahoma City, officials said. Windy conditions were contributing to the spread of the fires, and shifting winds increased the danger.


?When that front went through here it was unbelievable,? Reuse said. ?Flags just whipped around their directions and the fire went roaring the other way. That?s to be expected when a cold front comes through. It?s a real dangerous situation.?

There is little if any chance of precipitation in the next seven days, according to the National Weather Service. Meteorologist John Pike said the fire danger will remain high through at least Tuesday.

?We?re supposed to be in winter, but it doesn?t look like any winter weather is coming,? Pike said.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10835488

[Carol]

North Korea warns of nuclear war

North Korea has warned of nuclear war and has vowed to strengthen its deterrent forces, as it demanded that Washington show evidence backing its allegation that the communist regime is counterfeiting US money.


North's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said: "Dark clouds of a nuclear war are hanging low over the Korean Peninsula."

"The ever-more frantic moves of the US to ignite a new war against (North Korea) would only compel it ... to bolster its deterrent for self-defence in every way," it said in a commentary carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency on Saturday.

The North has repeatedly accused the US of planning to attack, but Washington has denied any such intention.

The North's comments on Saturday follow a South Korea-US agreement this month giving American troops more flexibility in the South.

The North said the pact was aimed at preparing for war.

Counterfeiting

Also on Saturday, the North dismissed US accusations of counterfeiting and other illicit activities like drug trafficking.

"Dark clouds of a nuclear war are hanging low over the Korean Peninsula"

North's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper

"The nature and mission of (North Korea) do not allow such things as bad treatment of the people, counterfeiting and drug trafficking to happen in it," KCNA said.

A pro-North Korean newspaper in Japan also urged Washington to prove its allegation that North Korea is counterfeiting US currency.

The Choson Sinbo newspaper said: "If there is suspicion and clear evidence as claimed by the United States, (the US) can present it and prove (it),"

The United States "continues to leak plausible information but the reality is that there is nothing to confirm the fact objectively," it said.

Source: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/ ... C9AF0C.htm

[Carol]

Nigeria reports Africa?s first bird flu outbreak

Deadly virus strain found in commercial poultry stocks, health agency says
MSNBC News Services
Updated: 12:03 p.m. ET Feb. 8, 2006
PARIS - A ?highly pathogenic? strain of the H5N1 bird flu virus has been found in poultry stocks in Nigeria ? the first reported case of the disease in Africa, the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health said Wednesday.

Nigeria reported the outbreak in Jaji, a village in the northern Kaduna state, according to the organization known by the acronym OIE. OIE spokeswoman Maria Zampaglione said the outbreak was the first reported case of H5N1 in Africa.

Nigerian authorities officially notified the OIE on Wednesday about the outbreak, the agency said in a statement. The outbreak affected commercial, battery-cage poultry.

The OIE said it had detected a deadly form of H5N1 after testing at a laboratory in the Italian city of Padua. Suspicions about bird flu were raised after the deaths of thousands of birds in northern Nigeria in recent days.

Further tests were being carried out to establish how similar it was to currently known H5N1 strains, added the statement from the Paris-based OIE.

An outbreak could have devastating consequences in Nigeria, Africa?s most populous country, where millions of people have chickens in their backyards.

?If the situation in Nigeria gets out of control, it will have a devastating impact on the poultry population in the region, it will seriously damage the livelihoods of millions of people and it will increase the exposure of humans to the virus,? said Samuel Jutzi, a director of the U.N.?s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in Rome.

Nigerian Agriculture Minister Adamu Bello said there had not been any poultry workers infected so far. However, it would be difficult for authorities to know this for sure as mortality rates in impoverished Nigeria are among the highest in the world and people are often buried without any formal medical check.

The deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu had not previously been detected in Africa, though other strains have.

Nigerian authorities have introduced quarantine measures and controls on the movement of animals and disinfecting the infected farm, said the OIE.

It said it is working with the U.N.?s Food and Agriculture Organization to coordinate its response to the outbreak.

?A team of experts will be sent to the affected area in order to assess the situation and provide technical advice,? it said.

Spread of the virus
Juan Lubroth, senior officer for infectious diseases with the FAO, said the genetic composition of the virus found in Nigeria was similar to the strain detected in Asia and Turkey.

Scientists fear that H5N1, which has killed at least 88 people in seven countries since it re-emerged in late 2003, could mutate into a form that passes easily from person to person, sparking a human influenza pandemic. Almost all of those who died were in Asia, and most are believed to have come into contact with infected birds. The disease has also been found in humans in Turkey and Iraq, and in birds in Europe.

So far, victims have contracted the disease through close contact with infected birds.

The Nigerian authorities have taken preventive measures including culling, quarantine, controls on animal movement and disinfection of infected premises.

The outbreak affected birds in battery cages in Jaji village in Kaduna state in the north of the country, the OIE said.


In Kano city, capital of neighboring Kano state where most of the poultry have died, traders in the market were trying to sell chicken at less than half the normal price as news spread of the unexplained poultry deaths.

A federal Health Ministry official said on Tuesday between 10,000 and 15,000 dead poultry had been destroyed and the standard procedure was to burn the carcasses.

Salihu Jibrin, head of veterinary services at the state?s Agriculture Ministry, said teams had been sent to various parts of the state to try and determine how many poultry were dying and what farmers were doing in response. He said the state had issued no statistics so far on the outbreak.

Experts said it was important to act quickly to try to contain the virus.

?What is most important now is not how it got into Nigeria but how it can be prevented from leaving Nigeria,? said Associate Professor Phil Hockey, ornithologist at the Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology in Cape Town.

?The prospect of bird flu loose in sub-Saharan Africa is a scary one because of the way that human and domestic bird populations are so closely intermingled,? he told Reuters.

Africans normally buy chickens live, often transport them in public transport and kill them at home.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11232657/

[Carol]

Greece, Italy find deadly strain of bird flu virus

Swans reportedly the first cases of H5N1 in European wild birds
ROME - Greece and Italy said on Saturday they had found swans with the H5N1 bird flu virus, the first known cases in the European Union of wild birds with the deadly strain of the disease.

As the slow creep of the virus around the globe continued, Romania said more infections were suspected in birds in the Danube delta and Bulgaria said the lethal strain had been confirmed among swans in wetlands close to the Romanian border. The region is a haven and transit point for migrating birds.

Nigeria started testing people who have fallen ill close to where the virus has been found among birds, in the first outbreak in African of a disease that has spread seemingly inexorably across the Eurasian landmass from China and Vietnam.

Finance ministers of the Group of Eight (G8), meeting in Moscow, discussed the risk of a worldwide pandemic and issued a new call for wealthy countries to help poor ones fight bird flu.

?We acknowledge the risk of a possible avian flu pandemic and its potential economic and financial impacts,? they said.

Italy said wild swans found in the southern island of Sicily and the mainland regions of Puglia and Calabria had tested positive for the highly pathogenic version of the H5N1 strain.

?Of the 17 dead swans, the majority (died) of H5N1, but this does not mean all,? Health Minister Francesco Storace said on the sidelines of a news conference.

Transport of animals susceptible to the virus will be banned in the three regions, Storace said, adding that no bird flu had been found in farm or domestic birds and there was no need to fear a risk to human health.

Migration from Russia
A regional health official in Sicily said the swans were believed to have migrated from Russia.

A spokesman for the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization said it was confident Italy was ready to deal with the outbreak.

?In most of western Europe there are very effective veterinary services and the poultry industry is of an advanced sort, not the ?backyard? sort, so the likelihood of there being a danger to the human population is very much less than, say, in Africa,? he said.

Three swans sent by Greece to the EU lab in Britain tested positive for the deadly strain, said a senior Greek Agriculture Ministry official. A sample from a wild goose on Skyros island in the Aegean has also been sent to Britain.

The new Bulgarian infections, too, were among wild swans. The only previous proven case of bird flu found on EU territory was in Britain, in a parrot imported from South America.

Some 70,000 treatment courses of Tamiflu arrived in Iraq on Friday and were to be taken to northern areas where there have been outbreaks among humans, the World Health Organization said.

The virus has killed four people in neighboring Turkey and at least 84 in Asia since early 2003 and forced affected nations to cull millions of domestic fowl.

Indonesia reported on Saturday that a 27-year-old woman had died of the disease, the second in two days.

There are fears that the virus could mutate to a form where it can spread from human to human, exploding into a global pandemic in which millions could die.

David Nabarro, who heads the U.N. drive to contain the virus, said this week was no evidence it had done so, but added:

?It?s not far away.?

A senior scientist at the WHO offered a glimmer of hope, saying on Friday that a limited number of migratory birds appeared to be spreading only a single sub-strain of the virus.

?It could reduce the mutation level ... you are less likely to have widespread mutation than if you had 20 strains hop-scotching across Asia,? said Michael Perdue, an epidemiologist in WHO?s global influenza program.

Virus appears in Africa
Genetic sequencing of the virus found in chickens in northern Nigeria, completed late on Friday, showed it also closely matched that in poultry outbreaks in Turkey and China.

Nigeria was trying on Saturday to discover whether people who had fallen ill in the area had caught the disease, and farmers culled thousands more chickens.

No human case of bird flu has been confirmed in Africa?s most populous country, but the situation is hard for authorities to monitor because of logistical problems and the high mortality from other diseases.

?There are a few suspected cases ... we?re trying to locate them but our sources can?t provide us with addresses for now,? said Abdulsalam Nasidi, who is in charge of the response to bird flu as a threat to humans at the federal Health Ministry.

Azerbaijan said on Friday the lethal H5N1 strain had been found in wild birds floating dead on the Caspian Sea.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11289941/

[Carol]

Three more countries detect bird flu

Austria, Iran and Germany find deadly H5N1 strain in wild swans
BERLIN - Three more countries said on Tuesday they had detected cases of deadly bird flu in wild swans, with Germany, Iran and Austria the latest to find the virus that has killed 91 people worldwide.

Austria and Germany became the third and fourth European Union countries to report H5N1 bird flu, just three days after the bloc?s first instances were confirmed by Italy and Greece.

Germany said its results came from initial tests. Both countries said samples of the dead birds had been sent to the EU?s reference laboratory in Britain for confirmation.

Experts had said it was only a matter of time before the H5N1 strain dangerous to humans broke out in Iran, a wintering place for wildfowl that may be carriers. Neighboring Iraq, Azerbaijan and Turkey had already reported outbreaks.

The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the virus has killed at least 91 people in Asia and the Middle East, according to the World Health Organization.

Experts fear H5N1 may mutate into a form that can spread between people and cause a pandemic that could kill millions.

New cases of H5 bird flu were found in Romania, Europe?s largest wetlands and a major migratory route for wild birds.

Tests were under way in Britain to see if the new samples were H5N1, of which Romania and neighbor Bulgaria have already had cases.

Germany said it would bring forward to Feb. 17 a ban on keeping poultry outdoors, and Italy said police had impounded more than 80,000 chickens and 7,000 eggs from farms in the south that were not respecting health norms.

Poultry sales fall
Across Europe and into Africa, countries have reported sharp drops in poultry sales as the number of outbreaks grows.

?I was buying 150 chickens every day for my stall before the flu appeared,? said Hassan Mountacir, a butcher in the central market in the Moroccan capital Rabat. ?Now I?m down to 10 or 20 at the most.?

The virus could soon spread further into Europe as migrating birds return after wintering in Africa, the United Nations? Food and Agriculture Organization said.

?We need to be aware that there?s a real risk for Europe when the birds migrate northwards this spring,? Samuel Jutzi, director of the FAO?s Animal Production and Health Division, told reporters in Rome.

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Health experts are trying to warn people of the dangers of the virus that is contracted through direct contact with infected birds, but are struggling in countries such as Nigeria where poultry is everywhere -- on the streets and on buses.

International experts are in Nigeria to advise authorities on what preventive measures they should be taking, including closing live-poultry markets and restricting poultry movements.

?Above all it is an animal disease and if one wants to avoid there being any human cases, the virus must really be stamped out in the bird population,? World Health Organization spokeswoman Fadela Chaib told reporters in Geneva.

No human cases have been found in Nigeria, the first African country to confirm cases of H5N1, and health officials said on Tuesday that two children suspected of having the virus probably did not have it after all.

Greece also said tests on a man suspected of having bird flu had come back negative.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11343728/

[Carol]

Toxic toads 'threaten disaster'
By Rebecca Morelle
BBC News science reporter



Cane toads can move up to 1.8km in one night
Toxic cane toads are evolving into a 'eco-nightmare' that are able to cover huge distances, a study says.

Scientists, writing in the journal Nature, found the toads are getting leggier, moving faster and further than their shorter-legged counterparts.

Cane toads were introduced for pest control in Australia 70 years ago, but have proved an ecological disaster.

They are now found in an area covering over a million square kilometres, but there is no known method of control.

Incredible distances

Cane toads (Bufo marinus), which can weigh up to 2kg, are toxic and highly invasive.

Since their arrival in Queensland in 1935, they have been sweeping through Australia leaving a trail of dead creatures in their wake.

How to control them is the $64 million question

Dr Ben Phillips, University of Sydney

To investigate their worrying spread, scientists looked at cane toads invading the Northern Territory of Australia, at a site about 60km east of Darwin.

They caught the toads, measured them, and also attached a radio-transmitter, weighing about 5-6g, around their waist to track their movements.

"During an invasion process the individuals at the front are there because they have moved the furthest," explained Dr Ben Phillips, an author on the paper and an evolutionary biologist at the University of Sydney, Australia.

"We showed that the toads that are the first to arrive at the front are the ones with the longest legs, and the ones last to arrive have shorter legs.

"The front toads also have much longer legs than the older populations in Queensland."

'Ecological nightmare'

They discovered that the toads were moving incredibly quickly, covering distances about five times faster than when they arrived 70 years ago.

"They are moving around 55km a year on average, which is a long way to hop if you are a toad," said Dr Phillips.

The researchers believe their findings indicate evolution is favouring longer-legged toads which can travel further, quicker, meaning they can encroach on new territories faster than ever before.

The scientists say the toads are causing an "ecological nightmare", killing many native creatures including snakes, monitor lizards and mammal predators, which are poisoned after eating their toxic skin.

So far, scientists have been unable to find a successful way of controlling the ever-spreading invaders, which are now on the cusp of invading Darwin.

"How to control them is the $64 million question," said Dr Phillips.

"A lot of time and money has been spent researching how to control toads, but it is an ongoing problem."



Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4716252.stm

[Carol]

Europe takes precautions against bird flu
Several countries ordering poultry be kept away from wild fowl


GENEVA - European governments are bolstering their guard against bird flu, faced with a growing number of dead swans and the risk that migratory birds ? which begin returning north next month ? could bring the disease from Africa.

Concerns about the disease, and its possible threat to humans, have mounted.

?Avian influenza is a big threat,? Dr. David Nabarro, the U.N.?s top bird flu specialist, said Wednesday. ?It is spreading throughout the world.?

Song birds are expected to start arriving in southern Europe from Africa in two weeks. They are judged to be less likely carriers of bird flu than ducks and other water fowl because song birds fly longer distances and tend to stay away from wetlands, where the disease is more prevalent. The migration period is heaviest in March and April, but runs into May for some species.

France, Germany, the Czech Republic, Switzerland and Sweden all took steps Wednesday to try to prevent the spread of the deadly H5N1 strain, ordering that domestic fowl be kept in screened, ventilated buildings, where they are less likely to come in contact with wild birds. Britain and the Netherlands have yet to record bird flu outbreaks, but ordered similar precautions.

Bird conservationists cautioned against a rush to judgment. They maintain that bird flu most likely reached Nigeria in poultry trade from Turkey and China. Veterinary specialists said they have yet to determine how the disease arrived in Africa, but that measures being ordered by European officials Wednesday were prudent.

The fear of birds migrating from Africa has been augmented by the deaths of swans from the Baltic Sea to the southern tip of Italy. Because of their susceptibility to bird flu, swans are among the first birds to die from the disease, giving an indication of where it is present, experts told The Associated Press.

The first swan deaths in Europe were recorded in Croatia in October, leading to controls on contacts with wild birds. In Austria, authorities said two swans found dead were infected with H5N1. At least nine dead swans have been found on Danish islands in the Baltic, and two swans died in Germany.

In Slovenia, a swan infected with bird flu was found dead last week. Laboratory tests are still under way to determine whether it is the H5N1 strain. Bulgaria has confirmed one swan death from H5N1 and is testing three others. The country has implemented disinfection of cars and shoes at the entrance to poultry farms.

Greece has four confirmed cases ? in three swans and a goose ? and Cyprus has a confirmed case in a chicken. Italy confirmed six swans died of the disease, which has also been detected in birds in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.

91 human deaths
Bird flu has killed at least 91 people since 2003, according to the World Health Organization. Almost all the human deaths have been linked to contact with infected poultry, but experts fear the H5N1 virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily among people, possibly sparking a pandemic.

Dr. William Karesh, director of the field veterinary program for the New York-based Wildlife Conservation Society, said it was likely the virus spread from Asia in a leapfrog fashion, with one bird picking it up from another, rather than one bird flying a long distance with the disease.

Experts are now concentrating on Nigeria, where three states have confirmed H5N1 among domestic poultry and five others have suspected cases. Scientists assume migratory birds brought the disease to Africa, but have yet to find proof.

?We don?t know how the disease got into Nigeria,? said Juan Lubroth, head of the infectious disease group at the U.N.?s Food and Agriculture Organization.

An FAO team is taking samples from wild birds in Africa to get a better idea of which birds may be carrying the virus.

But Lubroth said it will take four to six weeks to get results, and European officials are correct to take precautions in case migratory birds bring the disease from Africa.

?If there were an outbreak in poultry, it would be rapidly detected,? and the outbreak could be contained,? he said. ?The situation could be a little more delicate on the eastern side of the Mediterranean, only because surveillance is not as strong as on the western side.?

Experts said, however, that it might be necessary to order the slaughter of birds or a vaccination program.

Christianne Bruschke of the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health said the most likely birds to carry H5N1 from Africa would be ducks, because they can transmit the virus without getting sick.

?We think the virus has been brought into Africa by migratory birds, but we think that the virus will be transmitted on the ground more by trade, markets, transport,? she said.

Maria Cheng of the World Health Organization said the disease could continue to be primarily a bird affliction, but experts still fear it could mutate into a virus that could transmit easily among humans and cause a pandemic.

?After we saw H5N1 in Turkey, that drove home the point that we would not be able to predict with any accuracy where ... H5N1 would go next. It looks like it?s the same virus that was in western China last year that we saw in Turkey and also in Nigeria,? Cheng said.

?It?s clear that H5N1 is capable of going thousands of miles,? she said.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11361177/

[Carol]

Report: North Korea preparing for missile test

Long-range weapon has potential to strike mainland America, official says
SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea loaded booster rockets onto a launch pad and moved about 10 fuel tanks to a launch site in preparation to test-fire a long-range missile that could reach as far as the U.S. mainland, a newspaper reported Saturday.

South Korea and the United States made the assessment after analyzing satellite images over the past few days, the Chosun Ilbo reported, citing an unnamed high-level South Korean government official.

Also Saturday, the Japanese daily, Sankei Shimbun, reported that the missile launch could take place as early as Sunday.

South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Choo Kyu-ho couldn't confirm the report.

U.S. warnings
The report follows warnings by the U.S. government that the communist state was accelerating preparations for testing a missile that has the potential to strike the United States.

A U.S. government official said Friday that a test of the Taepodong-2 long-range missile may be imminent. The Washington official agreed to speak but only on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.



State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters Friday that any missile launch by the North Koreans would be a provocation and would violate their 1999 moratorium on long-range missile tests.

The Taepodong-2 is a three-stage missile, but the warhead section hasn't been loaded yet, the paper said. It said about 10 large tanks of liquid fuel have been moved to the site, but it wasn't clear if the fuel had been unloaded.

The North's missile program has been a major security concern in the region, adding to worries about its pursuit of nuclear bombs.

North Korea sent shock waves through the region when it test-fired a ballistic missile over northern Japan in 1998.

Violation of declaration
On Friday, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said a launch would threaten Japanese security.

"If North Korea launches the reported ballistic missile, which will directly affect Japan's security, it would be a violation of the Japan-Pyongyang Declaration," Abe said.

The declaration was signed in 2002 at a Japan-North Korea summit in Pyongyang, and reaffirmed by the two nations in 2004, he said.

South Korea said earlier this week that it conveyed "grave concern" to North Korea last month when signs first emerged that the North was preparing to test-fire a missile.

North Korea has been under a self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile tests since 1999. Still, it has since test-fired short-range missiles many times, including two in March.

The reports of a possible launch come after a prolonged hiatus in six-party nuclear disarmament talks designed to create a Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons.

Persistent efforts by the United States and other members of the group to persuade North Korea to resume the discussions have not been successful. There have been no discussions since November.

North Korea is demanding that the United States revoke sanctions that Washington imposed several months ago in response to alleged North Korean counterfeiting of U.S. dollars and other currency violations.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13361343/

[Carol]

Wary of N. Korea, U.S. activates defense system
Officials fear Pyongyang is preparing test of long-range missile

SEOUL, South Korea - The United States has moved its ground-based interceptor missile defense system from test mode to operational amid concerns over an expected North Korean missile launch, a U.S. defense official said Tuesday.

?It?s good to be ready,? the official told Reuters news agency. The step was first reported late Monday by NBC News and was reported in Tuesday's Washington Times newspaper.

U.S. officials say evidence such as satellite pictures suggests Pyongyang may have finished fueling a Taepodong-2 missile, which some experts said could reach the United States.

?There?s real caution in how to characterize it so as to not be provocative in our own approach,? the defense official said of the move to activate the system.

The Pentagon and U.S. State Department have said a North Korean missile launch would be seen as ?provocative.?

While military officials also note the United States has a limited missile defense system ? 12 interceptor missiles in Alaska and California ? they have so far declined to comment on any details about the capabilities or potential use of the system to intercept a North Korean missile.

International warnings
The news comes as North Korea declared it is free to conduct missile tests despite a self-imposed moratorium, saying it is not bound by prior agreements and that outsiders have no right to criticize its actions.

Before the latest statement, North Korea?s apparent moves toward test launching a long-range ballistic missile already spiked tensions in the region and drew warnings of serious repercussions from the United States and others.

Australia on Tuesday strengthened its warning to North Korea, saying Canberra could downgrade diplomatic ties with Pyongyang if the launch goes ahead.



In Paris, French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin said any North Korean missile test must draw ?firm and just? international response. United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged North Korean leaders for restraint.

?I hope that the leaders of North Korea will listen to and hear what the world is saying. We are all worried,? said Annan, who was in Paris to attend the inauguration of a new museum.

Earlier Tuesday, North Korea lashed out at the United States over its plans to build a missile defense shield but did not directly address concerns that it was preparing to test-fire a missile capable of reaching the United States.

Timing of launch
There were conflicting reports about whether a missile launch was imminent.

Japan?s public broadcaster NHK said Tuesday that satellite images showed fueling vehicles still positioned around the suspected launch site in the country?s northeast, but workers spotted near the head of the missile Monday weren?t visible Tuesday.

The launch site appears to be guarded by about 1,000 troops, the report added.

U.S. officials in Washington said Monday the missile was apparently fully assembled and fueled, but Japan?s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Jinen Nagase said Tuesday he could not confirm that fueling had been completed.

South Korea?s spy agency also believes North Korea hasn?t yet completed fueling the rocket because the 40 fuel tanks seen around a launch site weren?t enough to fuel a projectile estimated to be 65 tons, Yonhap news agency reported, quoting lawmakers who attended an intelligence briefing.

Bad weather over the purported launch site also dimmed chances of an immediate launch. The area was cloudy, with rain expected through Wednesday morning, said South?s Korea Meteorological Administration.

N. Korea: Not bound by treaty
Kyodo News quoted an unidentified official from the North Korean Foreign Ministry as saying that Pyongyang did not regard itself as bound by prior agreements to refrain from missile testing.

?Our actions are not bound by the Pyongyang Declaration, the joint declaration made at the six-party talks in September last year or any other statements,? Kyodo quoted the official as telling Japanese reporters in North Korea.

The official said his remarks represented Pyongyang?s official line on the matter, Kyodo said.

There was nothing in Tuesday?s Kyodo report to explain Pyongyang?s declaration.

An agreement reached at six-party nuclear disarmament talks in September does not specifically address missile tests by the North. However, negotiators pledged to work toward establishing peace in the region. The six countries participating in the talks ? the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States ? also agreed to work toward normalizing relations.

Three years earlier, North Korea and Japan agreed to a moratorium on missile tests. Signed by Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, the Pyongyang Declaration said the two countries agreed on cooperation to maintain and strengthen the peace and stability of Northeast Asia. It also stated that North Korea ?would further maintain the moratorium on missile launching in and after 2003.?

On Monday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned the North that it will face consequences if it launches a missile, calling it a ?very serious matter.?

Pyongyang lashes out at U.S.
North Korea responded Tuesday by saying that U.S. moves to build a missile shield are fueling a dangerous arms race in space.

?The world is not allowed to avert its face from the grave situation in which it is facing the danger of a nuclear shower from the blue sky,? the North?s Minju Joson newspaper wrote in a commentary, according to the country?s Korean Central News Agency.

North Korea also criticized a Japanese move to buy missiles and associated equipment from the U.S. to upgrade its missile defense system, claiming it showed an intent to become ?a military giant? and mount ?overseas aggression,? the North?s main newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, said in commentary carried by KCNA.

As tensions grew, meanwhile, the U.S. staged war games in the western Pacific on Tuesday with 22,000 troops, 280 aircraft and three aircraft carriers.

U.S. officials have said the missile, believed to be a Taepodong-2, has a firing range of 9,300 miles and could reach as far as the U.S. West Coast. Most analysts, however, say North Korea is still a long way from perfecting technology that would make the missile accurate and capable of carrying a nuclear payload.

The North?s missile program has been a major security concern in the region, adding to worries about its pursuit of nuclear bombs. North Korea shocked its neighbors when it test-fired an earlier missile version over northern Japan in 1998.

Experts say that North Korea's muscle-flexing is well calculated ? partly to compete with Iran for world attention and partly to take advantage of political weakness in South Korea's government and encourage further concessions from President Roh ? which in turn could widen a rift between the U.S. and South Korea.

The U.S. has few economic levers to pressure North Korea ? sanctions are already comprehensive. And North Korea ended up gaining after its previous missile test eight years ago in terms of securing a summit with South Korea and the resumption of negotiations with the six party talks.

But those talks have gone nowhere and North Korea has yet to get its two key demands ? security guarantees from the West and resolution of the Korean War armistice.

? Andrea Mitchell, NBC News Chief Foreign Affairs correspondent

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13361343/